Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lecce · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lecce 3-2 Monza
Original prediction
Lecce
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.78 | 34.1% | 39.5% | 5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 30.8% | 28.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 35.1% | 32.6% | -2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Lecce
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Lecce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LecceLLWLW
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
MonzaDWLLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LecceMonza
22.2Attack44.4
44.4Defence11.1
33.3Form11.1
35.1Power25.8
1.51xG1.21