Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lecce 0-2 Juventus
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.27 | 15.2% | 27.9% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 22.9% | 25.4% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 61.9% | 46.6% | -15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LecceWLLWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
JuventusDLWDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LecceJuventus
42.9Attack42.9
42.9Defence61.9
42.9Form52.4
43.8Power53.9
1.13xG1.34