Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bologna · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lecce 1-2 Bologna
Original prediction
Bologna
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.32 | 22.0% | 33.0% | 11.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 28.6% | 28.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.92 | 49.4% | 38.4% | -11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Bologna
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Bologna has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LecceLWLLW
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
BolognaDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LecceBologna
33.3Attack20.0
33.3Defence60.0
40.0Form13.3
38.1Power34.4
1.15xG1.10