Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AS Roma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lecce 0-4 AS Roma
Original prediction
AS Roma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.52 | 12.7% | 31.3% | 18.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 22.1% | 27.0% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 65.2% | 41.7% | -23.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
AS Roma
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
AS Roma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LecceWLWWD
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AS RomaWDLWL
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
LecceAS Roma
66.7Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power97.0
1.33xG1.20