LD Alajuelensevs
CD Marathon
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Central American Cup · 9/18/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
LD Alajuelense · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
LD Alajuelense 3-1 CD Marathon
Original prediction
LD Alajuelense
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 12:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 44.8% | 41.8% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.0% | 27.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.56 | 25.3% | 30.5% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
LD Alajuelense
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
LD Alajuelense has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60