Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio W · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Lazio W 2-0 Parma W, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lazio W 0-0 Parma W
Original prediction
Lazio W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.8% | 70.3% | 16.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.6% | 18.7% | -6.9 pts |
| Away | 4.38 | 20.6% | 11.0% | -9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.53 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.5 pts
Projected Score
Lazio W 2–0 Parma W
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Lazio W
Probability
70.3%
Model confidence
70.3%
Lazio W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lazio WLWWLW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Parma WLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Lazio WParma W
66.7Attack24.2
60.3Defence53.0
52.6Form24.2
58.8Power36.4
2.16xG0.55