Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lazio W 0-0 Como W
Original prediction
Lazio W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 41.8% | 37.5% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.8% | 27.9% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.4% | 34.7% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Lazio W
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Lazio W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lazio WLLDLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Como WDLWWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Lazio WComo W
11.1Attack33.3
55.6Defence55.6
11.1Form44.4
29.5Power47.5
1.26xG1.26