Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Lazio 2-0 Parma, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Lazio 2-1 Parma
Original prediction
Lazio
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 64.5% | 72.7% | 8.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 22.1% | 17.1% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 7.07 | 13.4% | 10.2% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.2 pts
Projected Score
Lazio 2–0 Parma
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
72.7%
Model confidence
72.7%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LazioWWDWW
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ParmaLLWLD
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LazioParma
66.7Attack19.0
81.0Defence38.1
90.5Form19.0
81.3Power29.1
2.58xG0.49