Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lazio 3-1 Monza
Original prediction
Lazio
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 58.5% | 59.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 24.0% | 22.2% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 5.41 | 17.5% | 18.1% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LazioDWWDW
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MonzaDLWLD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
LazioMonza
53.3Attack53.3
80.0Defence20.0
86.7Form26.7
76.7Power36.3
2.26xG0.89