Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lazio 1-0 Genoa
Original prediction
Lazio
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 40.9% | 44.4% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 32.3% | 28.9% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.55 | 26.8% | 26.8% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.32 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LazioWLWWW
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
GenoaLWLLW
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LazioGenoa
33.3Attack0.0
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power15.3
1.61xG0.91