Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lazio 2-2 AC Milan
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.60 | 26.4% | 35.8% | 9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.8% | 28.9% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 43.8% | 35.3% | -8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.20 · Draw 2.20 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.9%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LazioWWWLW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AC MilanDWWWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LazioAC Milan
44.4Attack55.6
88.9Defence77.8
100.0Form77.8
83.3Power72.8
1.24xG1.05