Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kyzyltash · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kyzyltash 4-1 Pobeda
Original prediction
Kyzyltash
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.30 | 39.6% | 38.8% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.9% | 23.7% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.4% | 37.5% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.30 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Kyzyltash
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Kyzyltash has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KyzyltashDWLWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PobedaWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KyzyltashPobeda
56.4Attack64.0
55.1Defence56.0
52.6Form60.0
55.1Power59.4
1.57xG1.59