Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ham-Kam · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kjelsås 0-2 Ham-Kam
Original prediction
Ham-Kam
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.93 | 18.5% | 34.2% | 15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 20.4% | 25.3% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 61.1% | 40.5% | -20.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Ham-Kam
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Ham-Kam has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KjelsåsWLWWL
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Ham-KamLLDLD
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
KjelsåsHam-Kam
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.89xG1.61