Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tromso · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tromso 3-2 Haugesund
Original prediction
Tromso
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 81.0% | 53.3% | -27.7 pts |
| Draw | 7.34 | 12.5% | 21.0% | 8.5 pts |
| Away | 14.02 | 6.5% | 25.7% | 19.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Tromso
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Tromso has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
TromsoLDDWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
HaugesundWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
TromsoHaugesund
100.0Attack100.0
83.3Defence50.0
100.0Form100.0
91.8Power84.5
2.65xG2.05