Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kaposvar · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Kaposvar 0-2 Ajka
Original prediction
Kaposvar
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.41 | 26.3% | 44.1% | 17.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.0% | 23.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 49.7% | 32.1% | -17.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
Kaposvar
Probability
44.1%
Model confidence
44.1%
Kaposvar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
KaposvarWWWLD
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
AjkaWLDLL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
KaposvarAjka
83.3Attack66.7
83.3Defence33.3
100.0Form33.3
89.7Power45.3
2.92xG1.61