Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventus 2-0 Parma
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.24 | 76.6% | 51.9% | -24.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.99 | 15.9% | 25.3% | 9.4 pts |
| Away | 12.67 | 7.5% | 22.8% | 15.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuventusWWLWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ParmaLWLDD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
JuventusParma
33.3Attack0.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.48xG0.91