Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventus 2-0 Atalanta
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 55.4% | 46.7% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 25.3% | 26.9% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 4.96 | 19.2% | 26.5% | 7.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.72 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuventusWLDWW
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AtalantaLLWWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JuventusAtalanta
50.0Attack41.7
66.7Defence58.3
58.3Form50.0
60.3Power53.0
1.42xG1.00