Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventus · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventus 1-1 AC Milan
Original prediction
Juventus
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 44.6% | 39.2% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.26 | 29.1% | 28.8% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 26.2% | 32.0% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.26 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Juventus
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Juventus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuventusWWWLW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
AC MilanWWWLD
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JuventusAC Milan
50.0Attack66.7
100.0Defence83.3
100.0Form100.0
86.5Power86.5
1.28xG1.17