Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Juventud 0-1 Penarol, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventud 0-0 Penarol
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 08:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.70 | 24.6% | 21.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.1% | 27.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 47.2% | 50.3% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.25 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Projected Score
Juventud 0–1 Penarol
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuventudLWWDD
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
PenarolLDWDW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
JuventudPenarol
37.4Attack54.9
58.6Defence72.5
40.4Form65.7
47.5Power65.2
0.62xG1.31