Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Juventud · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Juventud 1-0 Cerro, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Juventud 0-0 Cerro
Original prediction
Juventud
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.7% | 51.3% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.3% | 28.0% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.77 | 19.0% | 20.8% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Projected Score
Juventud 1–0 Cerro
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Juventud
Probability
51.3%
Model confidence
51.3%
Juventud has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JuventudWWDDL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
CerroLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JuventudCerro
40.2Attack26.4
55.2Defence50.6
40.2Form36.8
47.3Power40.7
1.30xG0.64