Juan Pablo II Collegevs
Alianza Lima
COMPLETEDPeru · Primera División · 9/6/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Alianza Lima · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Juan Pablo II College 1-1 Alianza Lima
Original prediction
Alianza Lima
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.54 | 20.3% | 12.8% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.4% | 18.8% | -6.6 pts |
| Away | 1.70 | 54.3% | 68.4% | 14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
Alianza Lima
Probability
68.4%
Model confidence
68.4%
Alianza Lima has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80