JFK Ventspilsvs
Mārupe
COMPLETEDLatvia · 1. Liga · 10/18/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mārupe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
JFK Ventspils 0-0 Mārupe
Original prediction
Mārupe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.5% | 20.2% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 25.8% | 19.8% | -6.0 pts |
| Away | 2.20 | 40.8% | 60.0% | 19.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Mārupe
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Mārupe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
JFK VentspilsLLWLL
GF 2 · GA 16 · avg 0.40/3.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MārupeWDWLL
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
JFK VentspilsMārupe
31.8Attack56.1
31.8Defence48.5
22.7Form48.5
31.1Power50.7
1.02xG2.28