Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pobeda · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Izberbash 1-2 Pobeda
Original prediction
Pobeda
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.08 | 10.0% | 8.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.40 | 16.8% | 13.9% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.24 | 73.3% | 77.6% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Pobeda
Probability
77.6%
Model confidence
77.6%
Pobeda has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IzberbashLLLLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PobedaLWLLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
IzberbashPobeda
30.2Attack63.2
9.5Defence54.4
28.6Form52.6
26.3Power55.3
0.82xG2.86