Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Astrakhan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Izberbash 0-0 Astrakhan
Original prediction
Astrakhan
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.6% | 24.3% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 23.7% | -5.6 pts |
| Away | 2.38 | 38.0% | 52.1% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Astrakhan
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Astrakhan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IzberbashWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AstrakhanLDLLD
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
IzberbashAstrakhan
30.4Attack40.9
14.5Defence47.0
30.4Form34.8
28.5Power41.9
1.00xG1.77