Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Liverpool · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool
Original prediction
Liverpool
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.77 | 16.5% | 33.6% | 17.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.89 | 19.4% | 24.3% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 1.48 | 64.1% | 42.1% | -21.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Liverpool
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Liverpool has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IpswichLWWWW
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LiverpoolDDDLD
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
IpswichLiverpool
66.7Attack66.7
0.0Defence33.3
50.0Form33.3
42.7Power48.3
1.85xG1.67