Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ipswich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Ipswich are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Leicester are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Leicester hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (57.5 v 63.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.2% in the League Cup, while Ipswich holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Ipswich
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
12.2%
Ipswich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80