Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ipswich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ipswich 2-1 Fulham
Original prediction
Ipswich
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 34.8% | 40.5% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.4% | 25.8% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.51 | 37.9% | 33.7% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Ipswich
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Ipswich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IpswichLLWLL
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
FulhamDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
IpswichFulham
46.7Attack33.3
26.7Defence46.7
40.0Form13.3
41.1Power34.4
1.66xG1.36