Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ipswich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ipswich 2-4 Arsenal
Original prediction
Ipswich
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.73 | 13.9% | 38.5% | 24.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.42 | 21.1% | 25.2% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 65.0% | 36.3% | -28.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
24.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Ipswich
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Ipswich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IpswichLLWWW
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ArsenalWWWWD
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
IpswichArsenal
100.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence50.0
100.0Form50.0
88.7Power47.8
1.90xG1.08