Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Inter · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Inter 3-0 Parma
Original prediction
Inter
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 84.2% | 64.5% | -19.7 pts |
| Draw | 9.01 | 10.6% | 19.6% | 9.0 pts |
| Away | 18.35 | 5.2% | 15.9% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Inter
Probability
64.5%
Model confidence
64.5%
Inter has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
InterWDWLW
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ParmaWLDLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
InterParma
100.0Attack26.7
46.7Defence53.3
86.7Form26.7
79.3Power38.6
2.11xG0.90