Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Inter · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Inter 3-2 Napoli
Original prediction
Inter
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 57.1% | 48.5% | -8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 25.2% | 26.8% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 5.35 | 17.7% | 24.6% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Inter
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Inter has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
InterWWWWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NapoliLWWDW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
InterNapoli
83.3Attack50.0
83.3Defence66.7
100.0Form50.0
89.7Power56.2
1.62xG0.97