Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ilirija · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ilirija 3-0 Bilje
Original prediction
Ilirija
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.3% | 53.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.3% | 23.4% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.4% | 23.5% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Ilirija
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Ilirija has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IlirijaLWLLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
BiljeLWLWL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
IlirijaBilje
51.5Attack60.6
63.6Defence33.3
48.5Form54.5
53.7Power50.2
2.22xG1.21