Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hull City 2-2 Everton
Original prediction
Everton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.53 | 26.9% | 35.3% | 8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 28.2% | 29.2% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 44.9% | 35.6% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.37 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Everton
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
35.6%
Everton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hull CityLDLDW
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EvertonWWDDD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Hull CityEverton
40.0Attack40.0
73.3Defence80.0
53.3Form60.0
57.6Power62.4
1.10xG0.96