Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Brentford · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hull City 1-1 Brentford
Original prediction
Brentford
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.87 | 19.5% | 29.9% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 23.4% | 26.4% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.67 | 57.0% | 43.8% | -13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Brentford
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Brentford has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hull CityLDLDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
BrentfordLDWWD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Hull CityBrentford
38.1Attack61.9
66.7Defence61.9
42.9Form47.6
51.4Power57.0
1.10xG1.25