Houston Dynamovs
FC Dallas
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/18/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Houston Dynamo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Houston Dynamo 2-2 FC Dallas
Original prediction
Houston Dynamo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 42.2% | 40.2% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.2% | 24.0% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.6% | 35.9% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Houston Dynamo
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Houston Dynamo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80