Hellas Veronavs
Catanzaro
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie B · 10/16/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hellas Verona · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hellas Verona 2-2 Catanzaro
Original prediction
Hellas Verona
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.76 | 53.2% | 58.2% | 5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.2% | 21.9% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 21.7% | 19.8% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.73 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Hellas Verona
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Hellas Verona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80