Hamilton Academicalvs
Kilmarnock II
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamilton Academical · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamilton Academical 3-0 Kilmarnock II
Original prediction
Hamilton Academical
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.12 | 81.0% | 55.1% | -25.9 pts |
| Draw | 7.49 | 12.1% | 20.8% | 8.7 pts |
| Away | 13.17 | 6.9% | 24.1% | 17.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Hamilton Academical
Probability
55.1%
Model confidence
55.1%
Hamilton Academical has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 1 · avg 2.20/0.20
GF 8 · GA 16 · avg 1.60/3.20