Hamilton Academicalvs
Cowdenbeath
COMPLETEDScotland · Challenge Cup · 9/23/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hamilton Academical · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hamilton Academical 1-0 Cowdenbeath
Original prediction
Hamilton Academical
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 79.5% | 60.0% | -19.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.90 | 13.2% | 20.4% | 7.3 pts |
| Away | 12.35 | 7.3% | 19.6% | 12.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.3–18%
Predicted outcome
Hamilton Academical
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Hamilton Academical has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60