Groene Stervs
AFC Amsterdam
COMPLETEDNetherlands · KNVB Beker · 9/22/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Groene Ster · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Groene Ster 1-6 AFC Amsterdam
Original prediction
Groene Ster
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.14 | 21.9% | 41.3% | 19.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.3% | 24.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 55.8% | 34.5% | -21.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Groene Ster
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Groene Ster has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20