Grimsbyvs
Shrewsbury
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Grimsby 1-0 Shrewsbury, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Grimsby 1-2 Shrewsbury
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 55.7% | 49.1% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.1% | 27.3% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 4.62 | 20.2% | 23.6% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Projected Score
Grimsby 1–0 Shrewsbury
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
49.1%
Model confidence
49.1%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrimsbyLLWWD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ShrewsburyDLDWL
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
GrimsbyShrewsbury
50.0Attack29.2
66.7Defence45.8
54.2Form33.3
58.8Power38.8
1.77xG0.61