Grimsbyvs
Northampton
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Grimsby 0-0 Northampton, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Grimsby 0-2 Northampton
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.72 | 54.1% | 46.6% | -7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 25.0% | 30.3% | 5.4 pts |
| Away | 4.43 | 20.9% | 23.1% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Projected Score
Grimsby 0–0 Northampton
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrimsbyLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NorthamptonDLLLW
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
GrimsbyNorthampton
43.3Attack16.7
63.3Defence70.8
43.3Form29.2
51.8Power41.8
0.94xG0.58