Grimsbyvs
Fleetwood Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grimsby 2-2 Fleetwood Town
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 50.1% | 41.0% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.44 | 27.0% | 28.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.06 | 22.9% | 30.0% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.44 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrimsbyDWLWW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Fleetwood TownWDWWL
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
GrimsbyFleetwood Town
16.7Attack16.7
100.0Defence100.0
66.7Form66.7
64.8Power64.8
1.17xG1.00