Grimsbyvs
Crawley Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grimsby 2-0 Crawley Town
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 66.7% | 60.9% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.6% | 22.0% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 6.74 | 13.7% | 17.1% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–013%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GrimsbyWDDDD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Crawley TownLLDLW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
GrimsbyCrawley Town
50.0Attack33.3
66.7Defence38.9
55.6Form22.2
59.9Power34.8
1.89xG0.77