Grimsbyvs
Bristol Rovers
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bristol Rovers · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Grimsby 2-0 Bristol Rovers
Original prediction
Bristol Rovers
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.8% | 34.0% | -5.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.5% | 28.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 33.7% | 37.6% | 3.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Bristol Rovers
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Bristol Rovers has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00