Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Gremio 0-1 Palmeiras, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.98 | 23.6% | 15.4% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.5% | 23.5% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 49.9% | 61.1% | 11.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.2 pts
Projected Score
Gremio 0–1 Palmeiras
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
61.1%
Model confidence
61.1%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GremioLLLWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PalmeirasLWWDD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GremioPalmeiras
37.0Attack58.0
53.1Defence74.1
34.6Form69.1
43.8Power68.0
0.57xG1.60