Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gremio 2-4 Cruzeiro
Original prediction
Cruzeiro
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 30.3% | 31.5% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.6% | 25.9% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 43.1% | 42.6% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GremioDDDLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
CruzeiroLWWLW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
GremioCruzeiro
35.6Attack51.1
55.6Defence51.1
34.4Form53.3
44.1Power53.6
1.08xG1.28