Gremiovs
Chapecoense-sc
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 8/30/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gremio · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gremio 3-1 Chapecoense-sc
Original prediction
Gremio
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.53 | 60.8% | 57.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 23.2% | 23.6% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 5.82 | 16.0% | 19.0% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.53 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Gremio
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
Gremio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GremioDLLWW
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Chapecoense-scWDLLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GremioChapecoense-sc
34.8Attack34.8
55.1Defence33.3
36.2Form20.3
44.4Power32.3
1.54xG0.82