Gillinghamvs
Northampton
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gillingham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gillingham 1-1 Northampton
Original prediction
Gillingham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.59 | 35.9% | 35.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.8% | 29.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 35.4% | 35.3% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Gillingham
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Gillingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80