Gillinghamvs
Newport County
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gillingham · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gillingham 0-0 Newport County
Original prediction
Gillingham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 45.5% | 41.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.9% | 29.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.36 | 27.7% | 30.0% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Gillingham
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Gillingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60