Gillinghamvs
Grimsby
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gillingham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Gillingham 1-4 Grimsby
Original prediction
Gillingham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.18 | 29.2% | 36.6% | 7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.2% | 29.7% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 43.5% | 33.7% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Gillingham
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Gillingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40