GIL Vicentevs
Maritimo
COMPLETEDPortugal · Primeira Liga · 9/19/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
GIL Vicente · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
GIL Vicente 1-1 Maritimo
Original prediction
GIL Vicente
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 46.8% | 46.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.8% | 27.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.83 | 24.4% | 25.5% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
GIL Vicente
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
GIL Vicente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20